Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1ae1…9242 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$19
other 27% +$1
politics 11% $0
sports 8% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 71% 14% -1.9%
≤90d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 71% 14% -1.9%
all 34 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 6% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -6.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -15.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -23.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.86 per $1 lost it wins $7.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $87 +$19 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Daniel Funeriu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 22 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 22 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11? Apr 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 07 $13 $0 +3%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 07 $14 −$1 -7%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $65 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $23 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $15 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.44 · official $64.52 (match) · 93 history records