Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1ae3…93e9 crypto 875 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$259 (-5%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%446W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$251
sports 7% −$100
weather 1% −$8
world 1% −$3
other 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -82.6% -84.2% 0% 0% -79.3%
≤30d 6 -82.6% -84.2% 0% 0% -79.3%
≤90d 364 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 35% -14.0%
all 872 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 38% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -24.4%
15% -37.3% 21% -31.7%
20% -43.4% 14% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses446 / 426
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)872 / 875
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 19 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 19 $4 +$2 +38%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $3 +$8 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $4 +$11 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 15 $18 −$6 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4PM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $19 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 15 $24 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 61d
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 61d
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 61d
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $2.94 (match) · 3500 history records