Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ae4…5282 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$195 (+2%) realized +$205 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%55W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$153
14 days+$153
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$209
other 26% −$6
crypto 21% −$43
politics 8% −$8
economics 8% −$1
finance 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +17.8% +6.6% 64% 64% +12.0%
≤30d 32 +13.7% +2.9% 56% 50% +7.8%
≤90d 34 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 50% +6.7%
all 89 +4.7% -5.2% 62% 27% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 27% -7.8%
10% -14.3% 20% -16.6%
15% -22.6% 12% -24.7%
20% -30.2% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses55 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage552d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 43¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $110 +$80 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $122 +$42 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $54 +$26 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $34 +$13 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $45 +$12 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $59 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $62 +$21 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Mar 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $310 before 2026? Jan 01 $28 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 29 $10 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 25? Nov 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 17? Nov 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 14? Nov 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on November 7? Nov 09 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 4? Nov 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 02 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $90 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $64 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $46 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 40¢ $30 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $94 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $35 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $35 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $52 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $70 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 40¢ $80 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 22¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 22¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 22¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 22¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 32¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 32¢ $27 17h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 32¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.19 · official $10.19 (match) · 240 history records