Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ae5…db8c other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$335 (-33%) realized −$335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%42W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$32
14 days−$100
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$200
sports 34% −$94
crypto 5% −$23
world 3% −$26
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 26% -29.8%
≤30d 89 -55.4% -59.6% 13% 13% -59.3%
≤90d 208 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -40.8%
all 208 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 20% -40.8%
10% -53.1% 19% -46.5%
15% -57.7% 18% -51.6%
20% -61.8% 15% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses42 / 166
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (160 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$16 +319%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$30 +982%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +99%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -21%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Greece 2 - 2 Italy? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -97%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Wales (-1.5) Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Leandro Trossard: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 18h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $21 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 40h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 40h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 9¢ $3 41h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records