Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1ae6…6480
other · 47 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$40 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage142d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 5 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 23? Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FURIA win IEM Krakow 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? No 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $30 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Sabres vs. Devils Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Feb 28 $5 +$3 +51%
Oilers vs. Ducks Feb 28 $5 +$6 +117%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$8 +83%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $10 +$5 +50%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $5 +$2 +39%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Will FURIA win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Jan 28 $2 +$4 +207%
Will Powell say "Not our job" during January press conference? Jan 28 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Powell say "Too late" during January press conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 26 $5 +$10 +195%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Jan 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $10 +$6 +62%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% −$10
economics 24% −$45
world 19% +$19
crypto 13% +$6
sports 12% +$6
tech 4% +$2
finance 2% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $10 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 81¢ $30 21d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $5 27d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 105d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 112d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 114d
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 114d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $17 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -59.0% -62.9% 18% 18% -40.2%
≤30d 13 -56.0% -60.2% 23% 23% -28.6%
≤90d 15 -61.8% -65.5% 20% 20% -34.8%
all 42 -31.0% -37.6% 36% 36% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 36% -21.3%
10% -43.5% 24% -28.8%
15% -49.0% 24% -35.7%
20% -54.0% 19% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.23 · official $47.23 (match) · 90 history records