Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ae7…5fe3 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$4
other 22% −$2
politics 19% −$4
crypto 10% +$1
economics 8% $0
world 7% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 161 -0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage165d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 12 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $41 7d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 8d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $51 15d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $51 15d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $51 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $51 23d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $47 34d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $47 34d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 120d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 120d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $53 120d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $53 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 120d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $54 120d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $54 120d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 120d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $52 120d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $52 120d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $52 120d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $49 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $49 120d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.53 · official $28.53 (match) · 521 history records