Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1ae8…fc47 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-24%) realized −$119 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$26
sports 40% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -37.9%
≤30d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -37.9%
≤90d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -37.9%
all 5 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 40% -37.9%
10% -34.7% 20% -43.8%
15% -41.0% 20% -49.2%
20% -46.8% 20% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$63 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $113 −$13 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 +$55 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 59m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $113 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $59 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $77 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.66 · official $94.67 (match) · 12 history records