Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1aed…0b9d weather 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%92W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$63
14 days+$84
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$76
weather 11% −$53
politics 7% +$31
crypto 1% −$13
world 1% +$1
tech 1% −$5
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 44% -0.1%
≤30d 55 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 33% -3.5%
≤90d 228 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 26% -6.6%
all 228 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 26% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -6.6%
10% -30.9% 19% -15.6%
15% -37.6% 17% -23.7%
20% -43.7% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses92 / 136
Open positions7
Markets (closed)228 / 235
History coverage76d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $102 +$45 +45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $52 +$141 +271%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $111 +$31 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $94 −$69 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 23 $147 +$29 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $102 −$48 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $282 +$38 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $21 +$19 +93%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$15 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$16 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$5 -17%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$37 -91%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$8 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$9 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $26 +$40 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 2? May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? May 31 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $5 +$4 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 12m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 12h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 25h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 25h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $111 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $114 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June SELL Yes 99¢ $176 4d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 81¢ $96 4d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $261 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.71 · official $201.74 (match) · 470 history records