Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1af0…c510 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 15% +$2
politics 7% −$1
sports 7% $0
finance 6% +$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 17% 6% -9.5%
all 38 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 5% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage478d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $74 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $33 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $27 −$3 -9%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 06 $6 +$3 +41%
Boise State vs. Air Force Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $16 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $36.28 (match) · 107 history records