Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1af2…30b3 politics 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$8
sports 18% −$3
economics 12% $0
other 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 5% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 -3.7% -12.9% 75% 0% -9.3%
all 63 -1.6% -10.9% 17% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage274d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $183 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $280 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $90 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $76 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 08 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 01 $425 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $473 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $93 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 25d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 105d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 105d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 107d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $94 122d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $91 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $91 135d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 138d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 142d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 144d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 145d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $91 148d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 149d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 149d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $91 150d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $91 151d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $90 152d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $90 152d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $91 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $91 154d
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $92 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.28 · official $95.28 (match) · 230 history records