Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1af3…b80f
world · 74 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$76 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$285
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)65 / 74
History coverage33d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 9 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$17
14 days−$64
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $140 $145 +$5 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 55¢ 51¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 48¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 44¢ 20¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 53¢ 32¢ $12 $8 −$5 (-40%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 83¢ 77¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum flipped in 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $86 +$11 +12%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $188 +$10 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $41 −$19 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 09 $37 +$7 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $102 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$2 +15%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $12 −$4 -31%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 05 $12 +$1 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -54%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $51 −$43 -83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -15%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $154 −$8 -5%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $196 −$7 -4%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $23 −$21 -94%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $80 +$5 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $35 +$3 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 −$13 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $10 −$8 -80%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 28 $19 +$3 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $28 $0 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $117 +$36 +31%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $6 −$2 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $51 −$29 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $6 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $33 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$25
other 21% −$31
crypto 9% −$1
finance 6% −$11
sports 1% $0
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 55¢ $20 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $19 21h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 41¢ $12 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $20 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 71¢ $23 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $20 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $20 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $19 28h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $17 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $9 31h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $13 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $20 34h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 41¢ $13 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $160 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $57 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $26 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $68 40h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 73¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $15 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $140 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 68% 32% -7.2%
≤30d 64 -17.6% -25.4% 45% 17% -12.9%
≤90d 65 -17.8% -25.7% 45% 17% -12.9%
all 65 -17.8% -25.7% 45% 17% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 17% -12.9%
10% -32.8% 8% -21.3%
15% -39.3% 2% -28.9%
20% -45.2% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.97 · official $285.20 (match) · 229 history records