Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1af3…0c4d other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2
world 38% +$3
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% +$1
sports 4% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 8% -9.2%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage448d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $87 −$2 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +17%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $8 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Dec 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Dec 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $12 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $40 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $43 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $44 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $42 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $44 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records