Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1af3…b3b4 sports 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55,366 (+18%) realized +$54,891 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%100W / 111L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,459per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$3,238est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,607
7 days+$7,686
14 days+$25,242
30 days+$49,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$30,789
other 32% +$23,814
crypto 0% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 45% +1.1%
≤30d 130 +7.8% -2.4% 45% 42% +10.6%
≤90d 211 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 41% +7.3%
all 211 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 41% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 41% +7.3%
10% -15.1% 39% -2.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.3% 36% -12.3%
20% -30.8% 29% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,168) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,737 vs −$1,070 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$8,069
Realized+$54,891
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses100 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,238
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1,459
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 49¢ 48¢ $8,150 $8,069 −$81 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $189 +$104 +55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9,684 +$7,028 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $188 +$107 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $123 +$106 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $144 −$141 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,741 −$1,684 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,870 −$2,805 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7,398 −$7,398 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $209 +$101 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $417 +$198 +47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $11,040 +$4,536 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8,323 +$7,997 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$100 +203%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $8,766 +$8,367 +95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $73 +$102 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8,044 −$8,044 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $352 +$845 +240%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $58 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $99 −$84 -84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$15 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3,204 −$1,516 -47%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $69 −$68 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $353 −$118 -33%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $5,072 +$6,456 +127%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $4,334 −$4,334 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $6,505 +$7,047 +108%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2,016 +$486 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2,965 −$2,964 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $3,814 +$4,127 +108%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1,165 −$1,165 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $5,491 +$6,988 +127%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $4,972 +$7,478 +150%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 02 $47 −$46 -98%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $232 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $165 +$103 +62%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 01 $1 +$4 +317%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $149 −$144 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $4,688 +$7,540 +161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $84 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $8,067 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $49 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $2 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $16,713 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $2 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $136 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $16 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $295 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,090 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $8,594 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 12¢ $144 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $15 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $922 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $13 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $819 5h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $1 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,068.90 · official $8,068.90 (match) · 1541 history records