Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1af4…0ae5 crypto 956 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,213 (-6%) realized −$3,139 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%568W / 377L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$207
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$4,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,259
other 0% +$3
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -8.0% -16.7% 62% 61% -17.4%
≤30d 550 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 51% -22.7%
≤90d 945 -5.0% -14.1% 60% 59% -16.4%
all 945 -5.0% -14.1% 60% 59% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 59% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 50% -24.4%
15% -29.8% 40% -31.7%
20% -36.7% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$3,139
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses568 / 377
Open positions11
Markets (closed)945 / 956
History coverage62d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 945 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $10 $15 +$6 (+60%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? No 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 90¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$31 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$12 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$34 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$16 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$11 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$16 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$31 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$8 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$13 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$11 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $28 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $30 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $28 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $28 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $28 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $28 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $29 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $5 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $28 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $28 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.18 · official $106.18 (match) · 2548 history records