Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1af7…860a crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%50W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$34
sports 21% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 57% +10.3%
≤30d 60 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 57% +10.3%
≤90d 91 -1.9% -11.3% 55% 54% -10.9%
all 91 -1.9% -11.3% 55% 54% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 54% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 49% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 46% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 43% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses50 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage59d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$17 +41%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$10 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $39 24m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $57 44m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $40 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.22 · official $38.23 (match) · 170 history records