Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1aff…ecab politics 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$25
other 39% −$18
sports 12% +$92
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 142 +0.3% -9.3% 8% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 7% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×14.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)142 / 146
History coverage138d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $365 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $322 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $298 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $755 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $291 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $324 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $291 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $899 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $320 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $341 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 18d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 20d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $328 30d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $328 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.90 · official $152.90 (match) · 436 history records