Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b01…7db7 crypto 1956 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%1246W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$34
14 days+$17
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 44% -19.7%
≤30d 773 +5.3% -4.8% 59% 58% -9.3%
≤90d 1862 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 66% -10.3%
all 1862 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 66% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 66% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -18.9%
15% -25.4% 22% -26.7%
20% -32.7% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1246 / 616
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1862 / 1956
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1862 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records