Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b01…dee1 sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,809 (-11%) realized −$2,792 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%77W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$283est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$400
30 days−$5,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,565
other 7% −$417
crypto 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 147 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 51% -20.5%
all 147 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 51% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 51% -20.5%
10% -23.5% 48% -28.1%
15% -30.9% 48% -35.1%
20% -37.7% 44% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$170 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,428
Realized−$2,792
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses77 / 70
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage89d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1,446 $1,428 −$17 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3,032 −$3,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $506 −$500 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 26 $254 −$250 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $152 +$148 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $162 +$158 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $203 +$182 +90%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $152 +$148 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $176 +$185 +105%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 16 $120 −$119 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $152 +$131 +86%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 16 $352 +$315 +90%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $203 −$149 -73%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 13 $164 +$136 +83%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $213 +$137 +65%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 10 $155 −$153 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $97 −$96 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 May 10 $264 +$236 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $149 −$147 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 08 $207 −$204 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 08 $155 +$145 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $103 +$97 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 07 $158 −$156 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 06 $114 −$112 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $203 +$137 +67%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $48 −$47 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 05 $142 +$118 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 04 $127 −$125 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $103 +$97 +93%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 03 $78 −$76 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) May 03 $72 −$70 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5 May 03 $96 +$104 +108%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 02 $97 +$103 +105%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 02 $95 +$105 +109%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $62 −$62 -99%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) May 01 $105 +$95 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $144 +$106 +73%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 30 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 30 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Apr 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,471 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 18d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $102 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,032 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $506 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 52¢ $304 26d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $254 28d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 49¢ $51 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $203 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 30d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $152 31d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $51 32d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $101 32d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $162 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 35d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $152 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 48¢ $176 37d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $120 38d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $152 39d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Pistons 52¢ $352 39d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 SELL Under 33¢ $50 41d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 41d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 54¢ $164 43d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $213 43d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 51¢ $155 44d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 48¢ $97 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 52¢ $264 45d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Pistons 49¢ $149 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.47 · official $1,428.47 (match) · 303 history records