Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b03…b127 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$301 (+14%) realized +$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 41L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$244
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$305
other 15% −$47
tech 1% −$31
crypto 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 57% +3.3%
≤30d 81 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 49% +0.8%
≤90d 81 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 49% +0.8%
all 81 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 49% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% +0.8%
10% -14.2% 49% -8.9%
15% -22.5% 49% -17.7%
20% -30.1% 47% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $41 +$45 +110%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 +$88 +145%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $45 +$20 +45%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $41 +$41 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$50 +124%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $46 +$29 +64%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$37 +122%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 +$53 +175%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $31 +$38 +126%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$58 +188%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$48 +158%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$26 +74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$18 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$42 +206%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$36 +117%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 +$53 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$14 +71%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 +$33 +162%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$29 +144%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 96¢ $85 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 45¢ $41 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 6h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 36¢ $10 6h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $41 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 6h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $30 9h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 37¢ $31 9h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 94¢ $66 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 26h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 64¢ $45 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 31¢ $15 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $20 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 95¢ $75 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 62¢ $20 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 29h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $41 29h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $46 32h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $46 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 93¢ $68 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $84 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 95¢ $69 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records