Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b08…dd9b other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-5%) realized −$121 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%29W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$114
14 days+$190
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$167
sports 17% −$61
politics 6% −$41
crypto 4% +$14
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 33% +1.6%
≤30d 65 -12.0% -20.3% 34% 32% -0.2%
≤90d 102 -5.5% -14.5% 28% 26% -6.8%
all 102 -5.5% -14.5% 28% 26% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 26% -6.8%
10% -22.6% 26% -15.7%
15% -30.1% 25% -23.8%
20% -37.0% 23% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses29 / 73
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage48d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $96 +$239 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Jun 29 $15 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $121 −$2 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $24 +$18 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$20 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$3 -46%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$51 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$46 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $15 −$4 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$15 +52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$6 -10%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $335 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 71¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $59 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $60 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $60 23h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $60 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $120 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 91¢ $31 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.44 · official $51.44 (match) · 266 history records