trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 13% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 22% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 26 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 38% | 4% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 4% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 0% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -34.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 26 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $78 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 02 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 31 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $4 | $0 | -11% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 31 | $12 | $0 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Appalachian State vs. Marshall | Mar 21 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$1 | -76% |
| Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha | Mar 19 | $2 | $0 | +17% |