Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b0a…0bb8 crypto 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-3%) realized −$43 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate72%276W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$37
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$33
other 6% −$106
sports 6% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 45% -22.3%
≤30d 15 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 47% -17.6%
≤90d 386 -2.2% -11.5% 72% 11% -12.1%
all 386 -2.2% -11.5% 72% 11% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 11% -12.1%
10% -20.0% 4% -20.5%
15% -27.7% 3% -28.2%
20% -34.8% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses276 / 110
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)386 / 388
History coverage59d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $26 +$31 +121%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$14 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$20 +77%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $22 +$22 +103%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $26 +$25 +99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $7 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $17 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $26 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $22 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $2 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $26 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $22 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 29¢ $26 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $26 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.06 · official $9.06 (match) · 815 history records