Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b0d…b018 weather 958 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$656 (-1%) realized −$654 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%910W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$285
14 days−$451
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$293
politics 9% +$16
other 8% −$110
world 3% −$153
tech 2% +$12
sports 1% −$92
crypto 1% −$81
culture 1% +$10
finance 1% +$6
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.4% -25.3% 79% 0% -30.1%
≤30d 94 -10.6% -19.1% 86% 1% -20.0%
≤90d 818 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 0% -10.8%
all 952 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$654
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses910 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)952 / 958
History coverage102d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 952 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$6 -12%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in May? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 3 Chile? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 3 Chile? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 25? Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Kazakhstan? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 3 - 1 Kazakhstan? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$8 +19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 08 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $305? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $47 +$4 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 25? May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 25? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 26? May 27 $63 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 99¢ $42 9h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 23h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $50 35h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $50 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $93 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 6d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 6d
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 7d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May? BUY No 98¢ $50 7d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.07 · official $297.07 (match) · 2010 history records