Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b0e…f132
weather · 1459 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,614 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$143 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$247
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1210 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1418 / 1459
History coverage40d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 42 History 1418 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$19
14 days−$46
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 14 $915 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 14 $1,788 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 14 $1,318 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 14 $1,511 −$3 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 98°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 13 Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 92°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 8-14? Jun 13 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$82
tech 27% −$18
weather 19% −$29
crypto 10% +$1
culture 3% −$2
economics 3% −$3
politics 2% −$7
finance 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 99¢ $95 47m
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $100 48m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $105 48m
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $115 49m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $120 52m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $122 54m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY 1¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 1h
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 1h
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY 1¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 4% -9.7%
≤30d 1069 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 1418 -0.3% -9.8% 85% 2% -9.8%
all 1418 -0.3% -9.8% 85% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.79 · official $266.81 · 3500 history records