Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b0e…b936 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$51
finance 14% −$50
sports 14% +$74
crypto 3% −$3
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 62% -2.0%
≤30d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 36% -14.4%
≤90d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 36% -14.4%
all 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 36% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 36% -14.4%
10% -33.3% 29% -22.6%
15% -39.8% 29% -30.1%
20% -45.7% 29% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage23d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $50 $139 +$89 (+178%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$4 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 18d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 4? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 18d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.06 · official $214.06 (match) · 40 history records