Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1B 0x1b0f…ec33 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-15%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$4
sports 23% $0
other 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 2 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 5 +7.4% -2.8% 80% 40% -6.6%
all 15 -5.7% -14.6% 67% 53% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 53% -27.1%
10% -22.8% 40% -34.1%
15% -30.3% 20% -40.4%
20% -37.1% 7% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage121d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.03 · official $6.07 (match) · 35 history records