Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b10…bb16 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+0%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%121W / 8L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$26
world 14% +$75
other 8% +$13
weather 1% $0
politics 0% +$2
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 79 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 4% -9.4%
all 129 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses121 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage149d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $150 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $340 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $320 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 6? Jun 06 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $350 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $149 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $300 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $320 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $300 12d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $10 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $340 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $340 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $320 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $300 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $300 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.18 · official $350.18 (match) · 272 history records