Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b14…106a crypto 1729 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-5%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%864W / 865L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$35
14 days−$68
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -18.4% -26.2% 44% 44% -26.1%
≤30d 315 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 47% -20.8%
≤90d 1729 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
all 1729 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 50% -15.5%
10% -23.0% 50% -23.6%
15% -30.4% 50% -30.9%
20% -37.3% 49% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses864 / 865
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1729 / 1729
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1729 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records