Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b17…40fb other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$10
world 32% +$17
politics 22% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 14% -7.2%
≤90d 10 +42.0% +28.5% 40% 30% -4.5%
all 60 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 7% -9.1%
10% -15.6% 5% -17.8%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage436d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 +$5 +12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $20 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $30 +$7 +23%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $2 −$1 -55%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $12 −$10 -84%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +75%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $17 $0 +3%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 e Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 29 $1 $0 -33%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $16 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 25 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $53 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $46 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 24h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $4 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $45 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $48 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $48 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $20 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $20 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $37 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $14 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.98 · official $56.00 (match) · 207 history records