Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b1a…fd83 crypto 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-24%) realized −$118 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%78W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$18
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$74
other 13% −$29
sports 9% −$24
politics 2% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.1% -8.6% 40% 35% -39.5%
≤30d 111 -34.2% -40.5% 24% 22% -49.1%
≤90d 406 -14.5% -22.6% 19% 18% -33.1%
all 408 -14.9% -23.0% 19% 18% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 18% -33.8%
10% -30.4% 18% -40.1%
15% -37.1% 18% -45.9%
20% -43.3% 17% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses78 / 330
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)408 / 411
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 301 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +144%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +239%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +168%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$5 +482%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: Poland 2 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Luxembourg 0 - 2 Italy? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +24%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 46m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $1 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 46h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $3.44 (match) · 639 history records