Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b1d…2687 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-10%) realized −$177 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 30% -17.3%
≤30d 46 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 30% -17.3%
≤90d 46 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 30% -17.3%
all 46 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 30% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 30% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 24% -25.3%
15% -32.3% 15% -32.5%
20% -38.9% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 22¢ 50¢ $14 $31 +$18 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$55 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$57 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $49 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $44 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $62 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 116 history records