Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b1f…61b4 crypto 466 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (416 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,225 (-157%) realized −$25,223 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%101W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day416.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24,784
7 days−$20,538
14 days−$15,911
30 days−$15,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8,873
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (416 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 561 -54.8% -59.1% 11% 11% -74.6%
≤30d 607 -30.5% -37.1% 17% 16% -56.4%
≤90d 607 -30.5% -37.1% 17% 16% -56.4%
all 607 -30.5% -37.1% 17% 16% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover416.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 16% -56.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 16% -60.6%
15% -48.7% 15% -64.4%
20% -53.7% 15% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -98% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$51 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$25,223
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses101 / 506
Open positions1
Markets (closed)607 / 466
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day416.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 26, 8PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$56 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $40 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.50 · official $3.50 (match) · 3500 history records