Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b20…5e04 other 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$334 (-39%) realized −$344 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$242
sports 29% −$61
politics 11% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -98.1% -98.3% 0% 0% -95.7%
≤30d 7 -73.3% -75.8% 14% 14% -40.8%
≤90d 7 -73.3% -75.8% 14% 14% -40.8%
all 19 -59.3% -63.2% 16% 16% -56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 16% -56.6%
10% -66.7% 16% -60.7%
15% -69.9% 16% -64.5%
20% -72.9% 16% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$34 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage291d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$47 -95%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 30 $35 +$26 +75%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 13 $30 +$33 +108%
WLFI market cap (FDV) $12-14B one day after launch? Sep 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-30? Aug 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Aug 30 $50 +$139 +279%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 16d
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 79d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $50 113d
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes $15 152d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $50 152d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $50 156d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $47 220d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $47 220d
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $63 248d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? SELL Yes 82¢ $63 248d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 276d
WLFI market cap (FDV) $12-14B one day after launch? BUY Yes $20 290d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 291d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 31¢ $89 291d
Will Manchester United vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $189 292d
Will Manchester United vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 292d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-30? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 292d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.70 · official $204.70 (match) · 44 history records