Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b22…e36e politics 56 markets active 9h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 21% +$1
politics 21% $0
tech 10% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 55 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage336d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Aug 10 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 21 $11 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jul 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records