Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b22…fc99 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate90%36W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.3% -6.5% 90% 55% -10.0%
≤30d 40 +3.3% -6.5% 90% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 40 +3.3% -6.5% 90% 55% -10.0%
all 40 +3.3% -6.5% 90% 55% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 55% -10.0%
10% -15.4% 12% -18.6%
15% -23.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses36 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records