Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b22…59b5 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,149 (-63%) realized −$1,112 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$957
other 40% +$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -24.0%
≤30d 8 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -24.0%
≤90d 8 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -24.0%
all 8 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 25% -24.0%
10% -43.2% 25% -31.3%
15% -48.7% 25% -37.9%
20% -53.7% 25% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$194 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,112
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 22¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 10¢ 7¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-30%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $453 −$446 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $84 −$82 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $33 −$33 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $91 −$90 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $128 −$125 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $487 −$388 -80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +129%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $430 +$888 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 6¢ $29 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $22 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $301 39h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $153 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $84 41h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $33 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $91 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $128 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $99 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $487 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $430 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.12 · official $68.16 · 17 history records