Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b24…2e06 other 73 markets active 345d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36,472 (+23%) realized +$36,472 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$2,210per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$23,817
world 19% −$1,218
sports 16% −$2,556
culture 14% +$14,749
crypto 0% −$20
tech 0% −$38
politics 0% −$83
weather 0% +$56
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 73 +5.5% -4.5% 51% 38% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 38% +9.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -0.6%
15% -22.0% 25% -10.2%
20% -29.7% 19% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,387) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,606 vs −$686 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36,472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage158d
Avg bet$2,210
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Invictus Gaming Jul 20 $12,444 +$9,778 +79%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend Jul 12 $11,280 −$11,280 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $23,894 +$819 +3%
Trump x Putin talk before July? Jul 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 01 $23,870 +$24 +0%
Baldoni x Lively lawsuit dismissed before July? Jun 30 $0 $0 +75%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jun 25 $602 +$94 +16%
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July? Jun 24 $636 +$21 +3%
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? Jun 24 $808 +$1,244 +154%
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $16 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m? Jun 23 $2,240 −$1,993 -89%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 23 $1,160 +$22 +2%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more tha Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 17 $603 −$603 -100%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 17 $2,237 −$2,237 -100%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 17 $810 +$3,560 +440%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less tha Jun 17 $7,711 +$7,895 +102%
Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early? Jun 03 $109 +$20 +18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July? May 28 $86 −$1 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $316 −$291 -92%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m May 28 $577 −$384 -67%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 28 $1,607 −$277 -17%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? May 28 $4,642 +$1,960 +42%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? May 28 $1,695 +$1,268 +75%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m May 28 $3,440 +$560 +16%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m May 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m May 22 $220 +$480 +218%
Will 'Hurry Up Tomorrow' gross between $4.4-5.2m opening weekend? May 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $40-44m opening wee May 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening wee May 20 $479 −$348 -73%
Will 'Hurry Up Tomorrow' gross less than $4.4m opening weekend? May 20 $93 +$7 +8%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening wee May 20 $673 +$116 +17%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025? May 17 $630 −$20 -3%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening week May 17 $341 −$20 -6%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? May 16 $553 +$267 +48%
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Shadow Force' gross less than $1.2m opening weekend? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross less than $0.9m opening weekend? May 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $0.9-1.2m opening weekend? May 14 $175 −$175 -100%
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +3%
Shevchenko vs. Fiorot May 11 $868 −$868 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 09 $294 +$56 +19%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? May 06 $492 −$38 -8%
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend? May 06 $3,502 +$387 +11%
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend? May 06 $1,042 −$971 -93%
Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status? May 03 $328 +$57 +17%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $400-415m by April 30? May 02 $124 −$95 -77%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30? May 02 $502 +$180 +36%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30? May 02 $3,979 +$2,326 +58%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30? May 02 $3,097 +$3,893 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Invictus Gaming BUY Top Esports 56¢ $12,444 344d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $510 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $940 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $1 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $133 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $35 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $261 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $106 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $470 352d
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend BUY Legend 47¢ $8,824 352d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $179 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $1,401 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $418 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $2,841 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $3,125 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $386 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $852 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $1,719 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $967 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $89 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $4,161 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $576 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $586 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $2,930 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $265 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $38 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $1,795 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $63 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $313 363d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 97¢ $127 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 989 history records