Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1b27…4d13 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$2 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-62.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-59.0%	-62.9%	0%	0%	-62.9%
≤30d	1	-59.0%	-62.9%	0%	0%	-62.9%
≤90d	1	-59.0%	-62.9%	0%	0%	-62.9%
all	1	-59.0%	-62.9%	0%	0%	-62.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-62.9%	0%	-62.9%
10%	-66.4%	0%	-66.4%
15%	-69.7%	0%	-69.7%
20%	-72.6%	0%	-72.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -59% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	37¢	42¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+12%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	31¢	30¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	54¢	55¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	28¢	$1	9m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	20m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	24m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$3	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$3	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$3	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.58 · official $16.58 (match) · 6 history records