Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b28…8491 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$27
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$4
other 3% +$15
sports 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -14.6% -22.7% 44% 42% -7.0%
≤30d 70 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 70 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 41% -7.5%
all 70 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 41% -7.5%
10% -27.8% 36% -16.4%
15% -34.7% 31% -24.5%
20% -41.1% 24% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $94 +$44 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $55 +$59 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$36 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$12 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$60 +437%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $116 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records