Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b29…5ad7
other · 172 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$66 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses44 / 104
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)148 / 172
History coverage53d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 24 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $4 +$6 +143%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 +$1 +62%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 30 $2 $0 -12%
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 -35%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -62%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 29 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% −$27
other 30% −$18
world 22% $0
finance 8% −$11
politics 4% −$5
weather 1% −$4
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 58m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 10h
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 94¢ $3 23h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 21¢ $1 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 34h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 13d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 13¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -56.0% -60.2% 18% 12% -54.8%
≤30d 98 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 30% -18.4%
≤90d 148 -21.1% -28.6% 30% 28% -31.4%
all 148 -21.1% -28.6% 30% 28% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 28% -31.4%
10% -35.4% 26% -38.0%
15% -41.7% 24% -44.0%
20% -47.4% 18% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.97 · official $33.98 (match) · 465 history records