Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b29…1227 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$655 (-4%) realized −$2,183 · open +$1,528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$13,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$392
14 days−$392
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% +$1,687
world 15% −$2,064
sports 6% −$131
other 3% −$195
tech 0% −$57
crypto 0% −$69
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.2% -17.8% 13% 13% -85.2%
≤30d 45 +84.6% +67.0% 27% 27% -56.7%
≤90d 63 +70.1% +53.9% 43% 38% -16.2%
all 95 +31.8% +19.2% 41% 35% -49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 35% -49.0%
10% +7.8% 28% -53.9%
15% -2.6% 24% -58.4%
20% -12.1% 21% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$60 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$13,262
Realized−$2,183
Unrealized+$1,528
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 56
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions26
Markets (closed)95 / 121
History coverage690d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $7,588 $9,178 +$1,590 (+21%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 74¢ 75¢ $1,903 $1,914 +$11 (+1%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1,255 $1,327 +$73 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 87¢ $495 $522 +$27 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 8¢ $353 $179 −$174 (-49%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 46¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+90%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 27¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-83%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$30 +1467%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +711%
Will Botafogo FR vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$10 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $15 +$22 +145%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1 +$4 +388%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 +$18 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1 +$49 +4752%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$47 +1348%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $46 +$4 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx May 08 $124 +$76 +61%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $48 +$32 +67%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 41h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 44h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 47h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 47h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 73¢ $58 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 73¢ $4 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 73¢ $18 3d
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,262.21 · official $13,262.22 (match) · 701 history records