Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b29…865e sports 88 markets active 14h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29,993 (-5%) realized −$27,550 · open −$2,443
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%68W / 12L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,790per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$529
7 days+$2,556
14 days+$2,556
30 days+$2,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$27,243
other 23% −$645
world 8% +$292
crypto 1% −$2,316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 25% -2.9%
≤30d 4 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 25% -2.9%
≤90d 4 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 25% -2.9%
all 80 -8.1% -16.9% 85% 10% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 10% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 5% -22.5%
15% -32.1% 2% -30.0%
20% -38.7% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$8,964) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$4,797 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$69,503
Realized−$27,550
Unrealized−$2,443
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses68 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions8
Markets (closed)80 / 88
History coverage143d
Avg bet$6,790
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16,100 $18,450 +$2,350 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16,294 $13,250 −$3,044 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10,891 $10,450 −$441 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10,505 $10,250 −$255 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8,500 $6,650 −$1,850 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5,300 $5,650 +$350 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4,097 $4,450 +$353 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $258 $352 +$94 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $8,403 +$429 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,717 +$574 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,748 +$1,452 +22%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $25 +$2 +6%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $7,552 −$7,552 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Jan 30 $19,178 +$1,877 +10%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5 Jan 29 $8,682 +$362 +4%
Raptors vs. Thunder Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jan 29 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 215.5 Jan 29 $2,197 −$2,197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 29 $2,669 −$2,669 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Jan 29 $7,365 −$6,354 -86%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5 Jan 29 $9,714 −$9,714 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 29 $17,660 −$1,676 -10%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 29 $31,228 +$7,491 +24%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 29 $27,704 +$2,606 +9%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $31,734 +$1,521 +5%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Jan 29 $964 +$35 +4%
Magic vs. Heat Jan 29 $56 +$2 +4%
Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Jan 29 $968 +$71 +7%
Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 Jan 29 $5,214 +$179 +3%
Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5 Jan 29 $3,273 +$148 +4%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $25,925 −$25,925 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5 Jan 28 $614 +$86 +14%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $15,604 +$696 +4%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5 Jan 28 $5,380 +$212 +4%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5 Jan 28 $4,573 +$213 +5%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5 Jan 28 $5,596 +$274 +5%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Jan 28 $5,370 +$68 +1%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 Jan 28 $369 +$8 +2%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5 Jan 28 $86 +$1 +1%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5 Jan 28 $217 +$2 +1%
Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5 Jan 28 $294 +$4 +1%
Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5 Jan 28 $4,473 +$75 +2%
Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 Jan 28 $915 +$13 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5 Jan 28 $287 +$9 +3%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5 Jan 28 $2,066 +$176 +8%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5 Jan 28 $3,140 +$723 +23%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5 Jan 28 $8,964 +$1,844 +21%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jan 27 $543 +$23 +4%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 27 $8,628 +$109 +1%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Jan 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 Jan 27 $106 +$1 +1%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Jan 27 $128 +$1 +1%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5 Jan 27 $216 +$3 +1%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5 Jan 27 $968 +$20 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $48,246 +$290 +1%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 27 $16,687 +$169 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $349 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $1,080 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $10 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $1,000 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $97 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $6 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $120 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $371 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $24 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $3 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $80 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $500 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $200 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $278 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $157 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $200 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $500 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $200 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $554 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $240 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $47 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $5 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $230 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $3 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $369 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $965 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $115 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $11 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $694 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $392 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,502.51 · official $69,490.51 (match) · 617 history records