Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b2a…160d crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,712 (-81%) realized −$8,129 · open −$583
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$400
14 days−$697
30 days−$7,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$8,247
finance 4% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-98.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 133 -98.5% -98.7% 1% 1% -99.3%
≤90d 140 -98.6% -98.7% 1% 1% -99.4%
all 140 -98.6% -98.7% 1% 1% -99.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -98.7% 1% -99.4%
10% -98.8% 0% -99.4%
15% -99.0% 0% -99.5%
20% -99.1% 0% -99.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$56 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,386
Realized−$8,129
Unrealized−$583
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 139
Open positions14
Markets (closed)140 / 154
History coverage30d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $375 $397 +$22 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $325 $163 −$162 (-50%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $215 $162 −$52 (-24%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $210 $96 −$114 (-54%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $85 −$65 (-44%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $81 −$79 (-49%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-22%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $75 $34 −$41 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 9? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 8? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? Jun 06 $24 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 8? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 04 $77 −$73 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 04 $103 −$97 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? Jun 04 $91 −$85 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 5? Jun 04 $87 −$81 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 04 $81 −$76 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $80 −$75 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $27 −$25 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 04 $101 −$95 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 6? Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 6? Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 03 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 4? Jun 03 $158 −$148 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? Jun 03 $187 −$175 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,386.13 · official $1,386.14 (match) · 390 history records