Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b2b…bedb other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 646d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$472 (-5%) realized −$297 · open −$175
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$508
other 29% −$60
world 26% −$384
crypto 4% +$228
sports 2% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -70.2% -73.1% 0% 0% -66.0%
all 50 -3.7% -12.8% 34% 28% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 28% -12.7%
10% -21.2% 26% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 22% -28.7%
20% -35.8% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$89 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

646d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage646d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $300 $125 −$175 (-58%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Apr 02 $50 −$15 -31%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 02 $300 −$115 -38%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Apr 02 $219 −$179 -82%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $100 +$100 +100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 14 $500 −$27 -5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jan 12 $300 −$9 -3%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $20 +$147 +733%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $14 −$12 -86%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jul 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jul 01 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the next Pope require 7–8 ballots? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Pope require 9–10 ballots? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Pope be a dark horse candidate? May 10 $100 +$400 +400%
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? May 08 $50 −$47 -95%
Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? May 08 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 21 $50 +$50 +101%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 12 $400 +$8 +2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $373 +$228 +61%
Martial law in South Korea again in 2024? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Assad public appearance before 2025? Dec 20 $207 +$58 +28%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 20 $300 +$101 +34%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? Dec 17 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 08 $175 +$582 +333%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? Dec 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 26 $303 +$142 +47%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%? Nov 21 $33 −$33 -99%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 19 $20 −$19 -96%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 19 $26 −$24 -91%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $60 −$33 -55%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $565 −$32 -6%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 06 $122 +$24 +20%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%? Nov 06 $13 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Nov 06 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? Nov 06 $368 +$267 +72%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%? Nov 06 $756 +$461 +61%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 06 $290 −$286 -99%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 06 $445 −$297 -67%
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $635 −$508 -80%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 −$50 -50%
Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $131 −$70 -53%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI Nov 05 $50 −$13 -25%
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? Oct 19 $30 +$38 +127%
Debate Bingo - Card 1 Sep 11 $50 +$21 +43%
Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at debate? Sep 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 1h
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $100 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $82 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $100 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $103 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $100 110d
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) BUY Seahawks 50¢ $100 129d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? SELL Yes $35 146d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 146d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY Yes $50 146d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $119 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $36 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 40¢ $291 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $300 157d
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei SELL No 40¢ $291 157d
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei BUY No 41¢ $300 157d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $20 158d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Bears 12¢ $20 158d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? SELL Yes $2 159d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes $14 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $183 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $200 160d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $300 164d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? BUY Yes $9 367d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $178 369d
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? SELL Yes $3 406d
Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? SELL Yes 15¢ $34 406d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.70 · official $524.70 (match) · 148 history records