Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b2b…d461 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$48 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$12
14 days+$16
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$28
sports 35% +$8
world 15% −$38
politics 6% −$10
crypto 2% +$8
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.1% +26.7% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 9 +6.6% -3.5% 78% 67% -12.8%
≤90d 20 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 45% -14.8%
all 24 -13.0% -21.3% 54% 46% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -14.5%
10% -28.8% 33% -22.7%
15% -35.7% 25% -30.1%
20% -42.0% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)24 / 44
History coverage693d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 93¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 90¢ 100¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 30¢ 99¢ $9 $30 +$21 (+233%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 83¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 62¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 92¢ 92¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 51¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Yes 31¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Yes 13¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +27%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6 +$4 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $24 +$3 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$8 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nicolas Dalby win by KO or TKO? May 14 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Jeremiah Wells win by KO or TKO? May 14 $12 −$2 -18%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 14 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $75 +$25 +34%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $51 +$49 +97%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Harris debate before election? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Feb 19 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Kamala say "Unburdened" in August? Feb 19 $7 +$6 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY No 89¢ $24 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $12 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $17 22d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 27d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 27d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 27d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 27d
Trump on $250 bill this year? BUY No 92¢ $14 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $15 29d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $30 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 29d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 29d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $26 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 31d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 39d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 39d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 59¢ $3 43d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 68¢ $3 44d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 60¢ $3 44d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 67¢ $3 44d
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 3 BUY Yes 28¢ $4 45d
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 45d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? BUY No 93¢ $28 46d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 46d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 46d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? BUY No 90¢ $27 46d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso BUY Yes 13¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.00 · official $338.00 (match) · 97 history records