Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b2c…b141 world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 21% −$1
tech 9% −$1
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.8% -12.9% 17% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 17 -4.0% -13.2% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -4.0% -13.2% 24% 0% -10.1%
all 40 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage449d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -18%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 −$1 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $4 $0 -8%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $13 $0 +4%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $1 $0 -14%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $6 −$1 -11%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 12m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $12 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $13 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $45 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $45 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $45 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records