trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 13 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 23% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 23% | 0% | -11.7% |
| all | 24 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 38% | 8% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.5% | 8% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -24.5% | 8% | -20.3% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 8% | -28.0% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 8% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $33 | $33 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $106 | −$3 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 02 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $70 | $0 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 31 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $4 | −$3 | -69% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 29 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $8 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $65 | −$5 | -8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Dec 10 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Mar 22 | $2 | +$1 | +76% |
| Xavier vs. Butler | Mar 05 | $13 | −$7 | -56% |
| George Washington vs. Fordham | Mar 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| New Hampshire vs. Bryant | Mar 04 | $16 | −$3 | -21% |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State | Mar 04 | $8 | +$8 | +100% |