Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b2f…c4cd crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$952 (-31%) realized −$945 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$991
30 days−$991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$894
other 33% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 67% -12.7%
≤30d 5 -24.0% -31.2% 40% 40% -57.9%
≤90d 5 -24.0% -31.2% 40% 40% -57.9%
all 5 -24.0% -31.2% 40% 40% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 40% -57.9%
10% -37.8% 40% -61.9%
15% -43.8% 20% -65.6%
20% -49.3% 20% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$360 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,193
Realized−$945
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage13d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$25 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $951 −$935 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $615 −$45 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $364 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $205 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $99 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,192.83 · official $1,192.83 (match) · 31 history records