Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b35…bfa7 sports 746 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,681 (-3%) realized −$1,676 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%492W / 244L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$431est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$5
14 days+$16
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,557
finance 9% −$451
other 5% −$319
world 1% +$25
crypto 0% −$96
weather 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +15.0% +4.0% 72% 65% -8.7%
≤30d 206 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 59% -17.4%
≤90d 698 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 57% -13.9%
all 736 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 56% -13.0%
10% -19.2% 42% -21.3%
15% -27.0% 28% -28.9%
20% -34.2% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$49 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$1,676
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses492 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$431
Open positions10
Markets (closed)736 / 746
History coverage120d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Rafael Jodar 84¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) Cory Sandhagen 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Milan: Raul Brancaccio vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Nikoloz Basilashvili 71¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Denis Shapovalov 67¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 66¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria Yulia Putintseva 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Coco Gauff Tamara Korpatsch $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $50 −$30 -60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $6 +$4 +76%
ITF Rzeszow: Herman Hoeyeraal vs Alan Wazny Jun 28 $5 +$7 +134%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $20 +$7 +35%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $3 +$6 +188%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $10 +$2 +21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $5 +$4 +76%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $30 +$5 +15%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $5 +$12 +238%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $30 +$3 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $6 +$2 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +47%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris Jun 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Jun 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $5 +$10 +197%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Cory Sandhagen 59¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 80¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 84¢ $30 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $30 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $6 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $10 10h
ITF Rzeszow: Herman Hoeyeraal vs Alan Wazny BUY Herman Hoeyeraal 42¢ $5 12h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek BUY Filip Jeff Planinsek 55¢ $10 12h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 100¢ $29 12h
Milan: Raul Brancaccio vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 71¢ $20 18h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 68¢ $20 18h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 70¢ $10 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 33h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 33h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 34h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $9 35h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 68¢ $20 44h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Denis Shapovalov 67¢ $10 44h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 34¢ $3 44h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 72¢ $5 44h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 65¢ $5 44h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $5 44h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria BUY Yulia Putintseva 34¢ $5 45h
Wimbledon WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Coco Gauff BUY Tamara Korpatsch $1 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 25¢ $5 45h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 60¢ $30 45h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 82¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.08 · official $151.08 (match) · 1672 history records