Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b35…4c68 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 15% $0
tech 6% $0
politics 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 12 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -5.2% -14.2% 20% 7% -9.0%
all 40 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.3%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage453d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $18 +$5 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $17 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $34 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? May 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 24 $12 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $40 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $41 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 38h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $0 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $33 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $24 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $9 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $22 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $10 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $29 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 108 history records